Capital Equipment News May 2018

in cell chemistries as the market moves from LFPs to high energy 4 th generation NMCs. This would mean a smaller battery weight and, hence, an increase in payload and miles/kwh. There is also a possibility of next generation battery chemistry, such as Li-Sulphur, which may be introduced around 2025 and can pack 400-500Wh/kg. This would be a major breakthrough. MS: A large majority of consumers though are still wary of embracing full electric vehicles. One of the key concerns is that charging stations are not prevalent in most places and charging times are inconvenient when compared to how long it takes to gas up and get going. Will this be rectified within the period to 2025? CK: Yes. Improvements in battery technology and a drop in price of battery packs only solve one part of the problem. Upgrading charging solutions to help reduce charging time and omnipresence of charging stations will play a crucial role in making eTrucks an attractive value proposition. We expect light and medium duty trucks to adopt DC fast charging, with charging capacity of more than 500 kW by 2025, and charging for heavy duty trucks would need 1-1,5 MW to be able to recharge 80% of battery within 30 minutes. MS: One of the imperatives for growth is developing 250 kW+ ultra-fast charging and battery swapping systems. Who is leading in this technological development? CK: Right now, most charging system manufacturers are gearing up to provide 150 kW+ systems, and Lonity (a partnership between Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen and Ford) is looking to install 350 kW charging solutions. This ultimately means that ultra-fast charging would become a reality by 2020, and the charging capacity would only further increase. We expect new market entrants to come up with battery swapping models for on-highway applications. MS: It seems that the uptake will only be possible for mostly inner city applications. When will we likely start to see battery longevity improvements to allow for long haul applications, for example? CK: The adoption will start with a regional haul of less than 200 miles initially, and as the battery technology develops to pack more energy into a cell, thereby increasing battery capacity and reducing battery size/weight. Longer routes will also be possible, of course if supported by charging infrastructure

and quick charging capabilities. Apart from regional hauls in the short term, applications like refuse collection and drayage trucks used in shipping yards will be more suitable for electrification.

REPORT BACKGROUND Frost & Sullivan recently published a report, Executive Analysis of Electric Truck Market , Forecast to 2025, which finds that electric truck market will grow significantly by 2025. China will lead the electrification of powertrains and contribute 60% of global sales. Key factors like a policy shift towards electric powertrains, incentive programmes, strengthening emission regulations, (especially in urban centres) and rapid technology advancements will augment high sales growth globally. The report provides a strategic overview of growth opportunities, developments and forecasts in key regions such as North America, Europe and China. Original equipment manufacturer (OEM) product launch roadmaps, adoption rates and future market trends are also assessed. The case for electric trucks is becoming more compelling with new business models like leasing of trucks and battery packs or fuel cell stacks, the availability of incentives, as well as subsidies driving market change. Europe is expected to switch to hybrid or full electric technologies in an active drive towards EU’s 20-20-20 target and to fulfil COP21 promises. In North America, however, awareness of hybrid- electric technologies is expected to be lower than natural gas powertrains as limitations in efficiency gains and recharging points impede adoption rates in the short term until 2020.

MS: Who are some of the early pacesetters in this field?

CK: Tesla seems to have really shaken the otherwise slow to innovate trucking industry. The first pilot production of Mitsubishi Fuso eCanter (Daimler’s subsidy) has already started in Portugal and deliveries are expected soon across Europe, United States and Japan, providing Daimler group with a strategic first mover advantage in their global electric drive push. Volvo’s Concept Truck, Mercedes’ Urban e-Truck and eActros, and MAN’s electric truck, along with Cummins’s AEOS announcements, are all indications of traditional trucking OEMs and tier-1s clearly preparing for much stricter GHG norms, entry regulations stacked against diesel engines in urban centres, and most importantly to mitigate the threat from new players like Charge, Enride, Telsa and Nikola. The new players are not just aiming to disrupt the trucking industry with not just electrification but also add layers of services like fuelling/charging solutions, leasing options, connectivity based solutions, and most importantly autonomy that can help fleets operate more efficiently. Players in the MD-HD truck segments – like Daimler, Volvo, VW Group and smaller LCV manufacturers such as Renault-Nissan and Ford – have all invested in or building battery technology and manufacturing capability. MS: China will lead the uptake, with almost 60% of the sales. When will we start to see eTrucks in less regulated, developing markets such as Africa? CK: Other BRICS nations such as Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa are expected to be slow in embracing eTrucks due to the tough economic climate and are likely to be the next wave of growth markets beyond 2025. The eTruck market in these countries will be highly concentrated in mega cities as city municipalities will respond with tougher emission norms in urban centres introduced in phases only after 2020. More than incentives, installing charging stations and providing uninterrupted power will be the biggest challenges in these developing regions. Chinese OEMs will have an edge over domestic manufacturers, and European OEMs that are operating in these regions. b

applications and how far are we before these challenges can be addressed?

CK: Full electric trucks in heavy-duty applications are still an ambitious proposition with significant strides required in battery capacity as well as price. However, despite these challenges, electric trucks will find their place in applications such as refuse collection, yard trucks, urban parcel and delivery services, as well as regional hauling. Plug-in hybrids and conventional hybrids will also form part of the mix. Battery cost and performance restric- tions are the main reasons why eTrucks are still struggling to make a mark. How- ever, things are about to change as the battery cost is poised to drop to less than $100/kwh by 2025, due to volume of scale resulting from a huge uptake in electric passenger cars. Also, on the technology side we expect the specific energy to increase by a factor of 3x to 350Wh/kg due to advancements

CAPITAL EQUIPMENT NEWS MAY 2018 27