MechChem Africa July-August 2021

Tipping points, optimisation and the environment

O ver the past 18 months, I have been one of those guilty of routine ‘doom scrolling’, tracking theCOVIDnumbers across the world in a vain attempt to somehow feel ‘in control’; perhaps to get some sense of when it all may end. We have all been subjected to the graphs of exponential growth: the rapid rise; the slowing down of the infection as lockdownmeasures start to take effect; the peak of the curve at the highest rate; and the turning point, when infection rates begin to fall again. Istill remembermyschoolmathematics,wherewe learnthowtodifferentiatepolynomials todetermine themaximumorminimumy-valuesofacurve.Would it be comforting if the COVID Pandemic followed a predictable polynomial path? Perhaps not. At least we know we can influence the infection rates and their peaks by changing our behaviour and develop- ing vaccines. I also vaguely remember having to study linear programming and optimisation modelling, which involve finding the best output value for a problem or situation that could be framed as a mathematical relationship. Minimising total costs and maximising profit is a common example. Optimisation, and I am sure the principles involved, are nowpart and parcel of the IIoT, data analysis, machine learning, artificial intelligence and diagnostics, where the pursuit of optimum efficiency, productivity, reliability and a hostofother industrial success imperativesbecomes the key goal. Another graph I remember well was presented back in 2006 by the ex-vice president of the US, Al Gore, inhis campaign toeducatepeopleabout global warming. Al Gore stood on a ladder to highlight how fastandhowhightheCO 2 concentrationinouratmo- sphere had risen. I confess to have rolled my eyes at the theatrics of his presentation, but the documen- tary was extraordinarily successful in highlighting the problem. Yet in the 15 years since, little has changed. At therecentG7summitof theworld’ssevenlarg- est ‘advanced’ economies inCornwall,UK, itemerged that CO 2 is now at a higher level in the atmosphere than at any point in the last four million years – and greenhousegas emissions are still rising. The summit identified“adangeroustippingpoint: if theworldfails toactnow, thefuturewillbechangedbeyondanything the coronavirus pandemic has brought about”. Climate economist, Lord Stern believes that, in terms of recovery from the COVID pandemic: “This is a crucial moment in history. Either we recover in a

Peter Middleton

strongand sustainableway, orwedonot.Weareat a real fork in the road. This decade is decisive.” According to latest global warming science, greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by 2030 if theworld is to staywithin the 1.5 °Cglobal heating threshold, beyond which extreme weather will take hold with “swathes of the world facing water stress and heatwaves”. Stern alsonotes that, while the cost of renewable energy has plunged and technology such as electric vehicles has increased, progress on cutting emis- sions overall has beenpainfully slowand: “…this next decade could be just as bad or worse, if wemake the wrong choices”. Inspiteofall theurgencytomitigateagainstglobal warming, Ian Fraser writing in this issue on behalf of the African Hydrogen Partnership (AHP) has found himself having to refute ongoing attacks on the green economy. Arguing in favour of hydrogen as an energy carrier and a future fuel, he notes that “once the hydrogen economy is ubiquitous, the energy to mine materials and to manufacture, provide and transport the support equipment will all also come fromrenewables, viathegreenhydrogeneconomy. It shouldbenotedthatvirtuallynoneof thesematerials will be consumed and almost all will be recyclable.” Innovative Engineering in this issue also features hydrogen as a key aspect of the transition to a green economy. Gravitricity MD, Charlie Blair, describes an extension to his company’s gravity-based energy storagesolution,whichinvolvessealingthemineshaft usedtocreateapressurevessel tostorehydrogengas. “Renewable energy generation is already creating periods of surpluses of energy … so grid-connected wind turbines are routinely being turned off to keep the grid balanced. Instead of turning these turbines off, webelieve surplus electricity couldbe redirected into hydrogen electrolysers to make ‘free’ hydrogen fuel instead of wasting the generation capacity,” he explains. Like theCOVID infection rate, CO 2 emissions can be mitigated by a combination of behaviour change andtechnologydevelopment.Wehaveall of theana- lytical toolsnecessarytopredict theconsequencesof neglecting to act, and to accurately track the effects of our combined actions. Allweneedtodo is toresetourdataanalyticsand optimisations criteria towards optimising the health of our Environment. Thismay seemlike ahugemind- set shift fromthe economic recovery imperative, but oureconomicwellbeingwill surelyandpredictablybe bleak shouldwe fail to act. q

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