Modern Mining August 2022

However, new supply is not keeping pace. Few major producers are looking to increase their capac ity; many are struggling to maintain output. Until recently there has been little investment in new supply – either to replace existing mines, or to meet future demand. Investment in new projects, includ ing recycling, is increasing but needs to be vastly accelerated to avoid a significant tin deficit by 2030. Recent events have launched tin into a dramatic boom and bust cycle with record prices followed by an accelerated downturn. There are prospects for moderate recovery by the end of the year as the market rebalances, but also real macroeconomic risks ahead. However, tin’s essential role in mod ern life, especially in electronics solders, will ensure long-term growth in future technology markets. 

clamour for the latest devices during the holiday period fuels the market. China could also provide some fuel for tin’s relaunch. Earlier in the year, China announced a GDP growth target of around 5.5% in 2022. However, it has been undershooting that so far due to Covid control measures. In the second half of the year, the country will begin to implement a massive proposed economic stimulus to get back on track. The new China package is focused on electron ics infrastructure including cloud computing, 5G networks and data centres, benefitting tin in solders particularly. Other stimulus measures target the auto motive industry and potentially the rapidly growing solar industry. We expect the combined effect to revive tin demand strongly. On top of this, nearly 90% of smelters in China performed their annual maintenance over the June July period, cutting some 13,500 tonnes of metal out of circulation. While many had enough stock to cover their contractual demand, there was still some impact on the spot market, helping to slow the price downtrend. Indonesian smelters have slowed pro duction in response to the lower prices, while African ASM producers have turned their attention to other commodities. Combined, these factors should help tin land safely. It will need to; it could be scheduled for another launch in the near future. The move towards an ever more technological and automated society will require more electronics. Tin can be used in all aspects, from the power gener ation through to the networks on which the devices will run, all the way to the devices themselves. Because of this, annual tin demand growth rates are likely to accelerate from roughly 2% to 3-4%.

Chinese tin smelters underwent annual maintenance as the tin price fell rapidly over the second quarter.

Drilling underway at a tin project.

August 2022  MODERN MINING  11