Modern Mining August 2023

Increased demand for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) over ICE vehicles is also expected to contrib ute to the growing need for copper, with IDTechEx estimating that demand for ICE vehicles will decline as competition with other powertrain options, such as BEVs, plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), hybrid EVs (HEVs) and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs), continues to grow. According to IDTechEx, BEVs, one of the most cop per-intensive of the powertrain types, is expected to become the dominant EV powertrain option by 2040. As innovation in the automotive sector advances, autonomous cars are expected to proliferate the market increasingly, fully emerging by the end of the decade. Vehicle automation requires multiple technologies that require copper, including sensors, on-board computers, cameras, light detection and ranging sensors (LiDARs), and radars. These sensors and computers contain approximately 50 – 100 g of copper, while the autonomous vehicle systems and autonomous driving control unit make up six percent of an autonomous vehicle’s copper use. Electrifying autonomous vehicles will only enhance the need for copper in the automotive sector. Expected trends in substitution and miniaturisation While the automotive market provides a window into the expanding demand for copper from the green transition, broader considerations on market drivers for material choice, embedded in substitution and miniaturisation trends, contextualise this growing demand. ICA-commissioned research conducted by the DMM Advisory Group has estimated that global copper substitution will stabilise in 2023, following a substitution rate of 1.25 percent of global usage in 2022. Additionally, ICA-commissioned research con ducted by CRU has estimated that potential copper substitution by 2035 will account for about 1.7 per cent of total global copper use, a relatively modest increase. At the same time, the DMM Advisory Group has projected that miniaturisation—or the design and production of smaller, more efficient devices with reduced material usage—is expected to increase due to natural technological progressions. As manu facturers continue to innovate, copper may be used more efficiently rather than be substituted. According to both the DMM Advisory Group and CRU research, multiple factors play a role in substi tution decisions—from cost and technical properties to material optimisation and regional regulations. As the best nonprecious conductor of heat and elec tricity, copper’s natural energy-efficient properties will enable it to retain material advantages when it comes to size, efficiency, and energy-use, providing the best cost-performance solution at the system level for many applications. While material cost has historically been a significant factor in substitution, the system level is where performance is increasingly

Electric vehicles continue to drive copper demand.

optimised. As technological developments aim to increase efficiency and durability, copper’s versatile properties allow the same amount of copper to sup port multiple functions within the same application. For example, as EVs continue to optimise for effi ciency and durability to increase range and safety, risk of copper substitution remains low due the metal’s natural properties and the focus on system level optimisation by designers and manufacturers to achieve these outcomes. This ensures that copper will continue to increase application efficiency and remain the material of choice for applications sup porting the green transition to contribute to a more sustainable future. 

Applications that have the potential to abate greenhouse gas emissions—from EVs and infrastructure to renewable energy—rely on copper.

International Copper Association  The International Copper Association is an advocate of the copper indus try, bringing together the industry and its partners to advance the UN Sustainable Development Goals and position copper as the material of choice.  Headquartered in Washington, D.C., ICA has offices in three primary regions: Asia, Europe, and North America. ICA and its Copper Alliance® partners are active in more than 60 countries worldwide.

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