Modern Mining August 2024

HYDROGEN OUTLOOK

Hydrogen engine vehicle sales take off in trucks, off-road and gensets After years of discussion and development, 2024 is set to be the year in which the hydrogen engine market really takes off. In 2024, India will move firmly into pole position due to its drive for energy independence. By Jamie Fox: Principal Analyst at Interact Analysis

Trucks There were no new hydrogen internal combustion engine (H2 ICE) trucks registered in 2023 (excluding test vehicles). We forecast sales of 40 hydrogen engine trucks (new vehicles) in 2024. Most of these sales will be in India, led by Ashok Leyland and followed by Cummins through its partnership with Tata Motors. From there, we see a fast-growing market with hundreds of sales in 2025 and thousands in the following years, reaching a forecast 10,121 in 2030. However, with over 20 million trucks expected to be sold worldwide in 2030, H2 ICE will still only account for 0.05% of the total.

Off-Road The off-road market, which also stood at zero in 2023 (JCB has already built many H2 ICE vehicles but not sold them for commercial use), is forecast to grow to 23 vehicles in 2024, led by loaders from JCB. Sales of hydrogen ICE telehandlers are also anticipated in the coming years, with the total off road market projected to reach 2 720 H2 ICE vehicles in 2030. However, once again this figure must be compared with the millions of (mostly diesel) off-road vehicles sold each year. The order Deutz received from China for gensets, plus the

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