Modern Mining January 2024

SA’s coal exports

mentioning green energy. This is because of a mis guided narrative that, pitting one against the other, positions coal as a menace to society and renew ables as the hero that will save the day. Unfortunately, this line of thinking has influenced policy in many parts of the world, leading to planned closures of coal mines and coal-fired power sta tions. This school of thought denies the possibilities of maintaining a balanced energy mix that involves fossil fuels and renewables. It is an all-or-nothing approach, which is risky given the intermittent nature of renewables and the overall shortage of infrastruc ture to ensure the energy is delivered. Coal plays an important role as baseload. For decarbonisation to work we need baseload, which can only come from coal, gas or nuclear. In the last quarter of 2022 and going into 2023, coal prices had begun to slow down from the hike caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. Detractors became excited, linking falling coal prices to its final demise. Nothing could have been further from the truth. Prices remained higher than pre-Covid times representing a form of predictable stability in the market. After surviving three turbulent years starting with the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, prospects still look favourable for coal beyond 2023. As a player in the coal industry, South Africa’s export prospects were hurt by rail constraints, which have cost the country more than R350 billion in exports revenues for 2023. If the situation is not resolved, as promised, the country should expect to continue losing out on opportunities. The longer the Transnet situation lingers, the more coal exports in South Africa are prevented from leaving the coun try’s shores at a favourable rate for producers and the country’s economy. Asia is a top destination for SA coal, importing more than 80% of its product, according to data from RBCT. The country is likely to suffer further opportunity losses should rail and port issues persist, even though coal’s performance globally is likely to remain strong. 

Above: The Mngeni Shaft at the Zululand Anthracite Colliery in KwaZulu-Natal. Left: Yellow machinery during operations at the Kangra mine in eMkhondo, Mpumalanga.

economies failed to agree on the big phaseout. Later in the year, G20 could only agree on tripling renewables by 2030, but showed no collective com mitment to cut down on unabated fossil fuels. This division of opinion is telling. Beyond the statistics, there lies a genuine desire from emerging nations in Africa and Asia to achieve mega industrial growth. They too want to secure the economic growth their Western counterparts achieved over centuries, through burning coal. It is nearly impossible to speak about coal without

January 2024  MODERN MINING  19