Modern Mining January 2025

COMMODITIES OUTLOOK

PGM Outlook for 2025 By Edward Sterck, Director of Research, World Platinum Investment Council

Platinum demand is proving resilient against the backdrop of global uncertainty, while platinum supply shows no sign of returning to pre-pandemic levels as the platinum group metal (PGM) basket price is not incentivising investment in growth.

Edward Sterck, Director of Research, World Platinum Investment Council.

Demand end-use shares, 2023 vs. 2024

T his year, the platinum market is forecast to record its third successive annual deficit at 539 koz as demand of 7,863 koz exceeds supply of 7,324 koz. What is more, our two-to five-year supply/demand outlook projects ongoing supply shortfalls through 2028, with annual platinum deficits expected to average 668 koz, or 8% of average demand, from 2025 to 2028. This outlook is predicated on robust demand, with upside from the diversity of platinum’s end uses, against limited supply, particularly in light of the sustained weakness in the PGM basket price which has caused miners to implement restructuring initiatives and, in some cases, mine/shaft closures. The result of ongoing deficits is the rapid depletion of above ground stocks, which are forecast to decline by 40 per cent between 2022 and 2025. In 2024, the platinum deficit was estimated at 682 koz (final numbers will be released on 5 March at www.platinuminvestment. com), with the exceptionally strong demand experienced in the prior year being sustained, achieving 7,951 koz. Supply is expected

to increase by 2% to 7,269 koz. In 2025, demand is expected to reduce by 1%, with supply increasing by 1%. Despite its year-on-year increase in 2024, supply remains constrained. Mine supply last year was essentially flat, growing by 1%, largely on the back of stronger-than-expected refined mine production in South Africa and Russia. In the case of the former this was due to the release of work in progress inventory, while the latter resulted from the completion of smelter maintenance work ahead of schedule. In South Africa, mine supply also benefited from the easing of disruption caused by loadshedding. Meanwhile, recycling supply was estimated to be 8% below the pre-pandemic five-year average in 2024, growing by a modest 3% to 1,587 koz. It is anticipated that headwinds concerning the availability of end-of-life vehicles for scrap might now recede after two years of pronounced declines as the flow of materials from consumers to scrapyards, and subsequently from scrapyards to refiners, improves. In 2025, supply is forecast to grow by 1% to 7,324 koz, driven by

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