Modern Mining January 2025

2025 remains above the ten-year average. Notably, hydrogen demand for platinum is showing good growth, up an estimated 123% (reaching 64 koz) and a forecast 32% (reaching 84 koz) in 2024 and 2025, respectively, albeit off a low base. We remain positive regarding the outlook for platinum demand in relation to the expansion of the hydrogen economy, although we acknowledge that the rate of this expansion is still subject to uncertainty. The hydrogen market could account for over 10% of total platinum demand by 2030, increasing to more than 800 koz, driven primarily by the use of platinum in upstream (electrolyser) and downstream (hydrogen fuel cell) applications. Jewellery demand for platinum appears to be moving beyond the low of 2023, having grown by an estimated 5% to 1,951 koz in 2024, driven by a surge in fabrication in India and with price-sensitive consumers finding better value in platinum prices compared to those of gold. This growth is expected to continue in 2025, with a 2% rise to 1,983 koz forecast based on a potential recovery in the beleaguered China market, and ongoing strength in India. With regard to investment demand, in 2024 an estimated 17% increase in demand for larger bars in China (500g and over) to 157 koz and net positive exchange traded fund (ETF) holdings of 150 koz were offset by a 47% (151 koz) drop in global bar and coin demand, excluding China larger bars, driven by price-driven selling in Japan and weaker demand in North America. The result was a net positive investment demand of 393 koz. During 2024, we were delighted to note that Costco, the third largest retailer in the world, added platinum bars and coins to its online

Demand for bars of 500g and larger in China is growing. Picture credit: China Gold Coin Group

Costco has added platinum bars and coins to its online offering in the US, including the 1 oz Platinum Fortuna bullion bar. Picture credit: PAMP

offering in the US, the potential upside from which is not yet included in our numbers. For 2025, total investment demand is expected to rise 7% to 420 koz, driven mainly by growth in stocks held by exchanges and an 8% increase in demand for bars of 500g and larger in China. While global bar and coin investment demand is forecast to ease by 12% to 151 koz, bar and coin demand in North America is projected to return to growth. Platinum ETF holdings are also expected to rise by 50 koz. Overall, investor sentiment appears to be improving, attracted by strengthening fundamentals. Market deficits stemming from higher-for-longer automotive demand and ongoing supply challenges have already resulted in above-ground stocks becoming the supply of last resort. The depletion of these stocks should eventually help physical markets tighten and translate into renewed upward pressure on the platinum price. n

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JANUARY 2025 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za  MODERN MINING  23