Modern Mining January 2025

Emerging as critical players in the coal sector, countries like India and China are increasingly investing in coal projects to foster self-reliance in industries such as agriculture, critical minerals, and chemicals. This shift aims to reduce dependency on imports of these commodities and ensures a stable domestic supply to fuel their economic growth. By funding new coal projects, these nations are addressing energy security concerns while supporting rapid industrialisation and economic self-sufficiency. The pricing of coal in 2024 has been influenced by several critical factors as further detailed below. Volatility in Global Markets Coal pricing in 2024 has been marked by significant volatility, driven largely by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, in particular, has created supply bottlenecks, foreign currency restrictions and the increased the price of coal. However, the rising cost of production and logistics has also presented challenges for producers and consumers alike. As geopolitical tensions continue to affect energy markets, we expect coal prices to remain well supported, especially in regions that are heavily dependent on imports. Southeast Asia and parts of Africa will continue to see strong demand for coal as these regions prioritise economic growth and related energy security over an immediate transition to renewables. Reduced Availability of High-Quality Assets • One of the key challenges facing the industry is the reduced availability of high-quality coal assets. Many of the world’s prime coal reserves are becoming increasingly difficult to access due to environmental regulations, operational constraints, and investment and financial barriers. This has contributed to tighter supply and upward pressure on coal prices. Navigating challenges into 2025 Looking ahead to 2025, the coal industry will continue navigating challenges and leveraging opportunities while benefiting from several global trends: • Energy Transition and Geopolitical Volatility • While renewable energy is gaining momentum, the energy transition remains complex and fraught with challenges. Increasing geopolitical tensions will likely persist, making energy security a critical focus for governments. Coal’s reliability and affordability positions it as a key energy source during this period of transition. • Increased Demand from Developing Economies • As we move into 2025, developing economies will continue to drive coal demand, particularly in Asia. The industrial growth of these nations, combined with the increasing need for energy security, ensures that coal will remain a vital part of the global energy mix for years to come. Coal remains an affordable, cost-effective energy source, crucial for developing nations seeking affordable solutions to meet their growing energy demands. The

reliable and consistent power output of coal-fired plants addresses the need for stable energy access, supporting industrialisation and economic development in these economies. • Sustainability and Technological Innovation • The future of coal is inextricably linked to technological innovation. To achieve a low-carbon future, equitable funding, as outlined in Article 10.2 of the Paris Agreement, is essential for deploying these critical technologies. FutureCoal’s Sustainable Coal Stewardship roadmap highlights proven solutions capable of reducing coal emissions by up to 99%. These include carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS), high-efficiency low-emissions (HELE) technologies, coal gasification, and coal co-firing with biomass or ammonia. These innovations can significantly cut CO2 emissions without compromising the security, flexibility, or affordability of electricity supply. • The path to net-zero emissions is narrow, and maintaining it requires the widespread deployment of all available clean energy technologies. Hybrid power systems combining coal and renewables, advancements in coal gasification, and increased investments in CCUS technologies will be pivotal in shaping the future of the industry. • Job Creation and Community Development • The coal industry isn’t just about energy—it’s about people. For coal producing countries, coal mining supports millions of jobs, drives local economies, and helps alleviate poverty. Thungela remains committed to building a sustainable, long-life business that delivers shared value not just to shareholders, but also to our employees and the communities we serve that rely on coal for their livelihoods. • Balanced Perspectives on the Energy Transition • The global energy transition must balance energy security, job creation, and environmental goals through an energy addition approach—not replacement. Just as wind and solar took decades to become viable contributors, coal must also be given the chance to evolve and adapt to our future energy landscape. By embracing innovation and enhanced technologies, [sustainable] coal can continue to meet growing energy demands while reducing its environmental footprint. • This approach ensures that all energy sources play a role in a secure and sustainable future. The energy transition is a human story, and we must ensure that it happens in a way that does not sacrifice anyone over another. We must strive for an equitable, just and fair energy transition that lays the foundation for future generations. As we pursue a future where all energy sources coexist, coal will continue to play a critical role in driving economic growth, particularly in regions where alternatives are not yet economically viable. At Thungela, we believe coal drives innovation and new business opportunities. By embracing FutureCoal’s sustainable coal stewardship map, coal-rich nations can seize opportunities for job creation, industrial development, and sustainable practices - ensuring coal remains a profitable and dynamic natural resource. The future requires all energy sources working together to create a more resilient, sustainable, and equitable world. n

JANUARY 2025 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za  MODERN MINING  25