Modern Mining October 2025

COMMODITIES OUTLOOK

Jewellery: The sparkle driving the platinum supply and demand conversation The platinum market is experiencing a powerful revival, with prices soaring to an 11-year high in June 2025. While traditional industrial uses such as automotive catalysts, electronics, manufacturing equipment, and medical applications continue to drive the market, according to Platinum Guild International (PGI), a marketing organisation, platinum jewellery sales are contributing to this upward momentum. Platinum’s rally: supply and demand constraints The recent rally in the platinum price reflects increasing demand from industrial applications such as medical uses and manufacturing equipment, as well as from the automotive industry. As demand for hybrid vehicles rises, exceeding that of electric vehicles in Western economies, a greater platinum content per vehicle is required due to its role in effective emission control – converting carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons in the catalytic converter into carbon dioxide and water vapour. However, shifting consumer perceptions in the jewellery market are also playing a role – gold prices have soared to record highs and created what is widely known as “gold fatigue” among consumers and investors, meaning platinum, with its analogous prestige, is re-enforcing itself as a compelling alternative to gold for jewellery; luxurious, but more accessible. At the same time, fundamental supply constraints are also influencing

rising prices. Leading independent precious metals consultancy, Metals Focus, predicts that the platinum market will record a deficit of 600 000 ounces in 2025, with global mine output forecasted to decrease by 6%. The platinum-group metals (PGM) market has exhibited this outlook since the start of the year, when, like many other commodity markets, it began to face heightened uncertainty due to tariff discussions and shifting automotive emissions regulations. This prompted a significant shift of material into the US, with the CME Group’s warehouse stocks reaching 630 000 ounces in Q1 before declining to 341 000 in Q2. Unlike last year, when accelerated inventory drawdown helped ease the market, this is unlikely to repeat itself in 2025 according to Metals Focus’ Director of PGM Research, Wilma Swarts. These supply shortfalls largely stem from economic challenges and weaker production in key regions, particularly South Africa. South Africa remains the backbone of global platinum supply, with the Western Limb alone containing over 450 million ounces of PGMs, and 70% of the world’s platinum supply, according to GlobalData. Although these resources are sufficient to sustain current output for over a century, according to Metals Focus, economic pressures are reshaping the supply landscape. In 2010, when Metals Focus’ platinum mine dataset began, the Western Limb accounted for 61% of global output. Since then, that share has steadily declined, slipping to 50% last year and

Source: Metals Focus, Precious Metals Weekly, August 2025. Chart showing platinum price year-on-year since 2022.

Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg, PGM Focus 2025. Chart showing annual platinum demand forecast, including consistent rising demand year-on-year from the jewellery sector since 2020.

10  MODERN MINING  www.modernminingmagazine.co.za | OCTOBER 2025