Modern Mining September 2024

meet growing industrial demand?

Top tin mining and tin refining countries.

Underground at South Crofty mine.

rarity, it has seen a marked spike in demand as the technological revolution allows its applications to expand. The first quarter of 2024 saw a 6.7% rise in Chinese tin consumption, driven by increased demand from the renewable energy and electronics markets. The positive growth forecasts for these sectors suggest the metal will remain highly valuable in the coming years; “Tin demand from the green sector could more than double by 2030, potentially topping 70 000 tons per annum, equivalent to a fifth of current consumption,” according to the Bank of America. Despite these impressive figures, geopolitical conflicts, inflation rates, macroeconomic shocks, and supply chain disruptions are paving the way for global tin demand to exceed supply according to Project Blue, a research firm providing critical minerals market intelligence. The majority of tin ore is mined in Southeast Asia with approximately 55% of the world’s supply coming from China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Malaysia. China underpins 30% of global tin production but is also heavily dependent on other countries to meet its own demand, receiving 75% of its imports from sources in Asia. This intricate web of interdependence can thus have severe implications if there are disruptions elsewhere in the supply chain. For example, export bans like those implemented by the Indonesian government in January can decrease a country’s shipments and create a large gap in the market. This was further exacerbated by the fact that the tin market remained in a deficit from 2017-2021, and production of the refined metal decreased 2.1% in 2023.The repercussions of reduced tin quantities entering the supply chain are compounded by the lack of investment into new projects across the globe. Approximately

90% of tin reserves are located in high-geopolitical-risk regions, particularly Indonesia and Myanmar. The associated risk makes investors cautious about committing significant capital to new projects, facilitating a stunted supply and persistent global shortfall. Lack of investment is a widespread issue facing the metals market, but tin is particularly affected, with global production set to grow just 0.6% until 2032, compared to a 3.2% year on year increase from 2013 – 2022. “[There is] currently under-investment in companies seeking to discover and develop [tin]”, according to the International Tin Association. Top tin mining and tin refining countries. However, demand remains at an all-time high, with prices rallying at near two-year peaks, according to Mining.com, and on track to increase further during the second half of 2024. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association predicts macroeconomic factors might cause prices to reach as high as $38 000 a tonne. This paints a telling picture of the future of the market, and the short and long-term production challenges that highlight the need to bring more tin mines online. Powering the UK tin market and strengthening global supply chains These evolving supply and demand dynamics have significantly enhanced the value of tin producers who are actively

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