Modern Mining April 2025

GOLD OUTLOOK

jewellery demand, usually the biggest market, down 29%. This reflects not only the high prices, but also the weak consumer sentiment in the Chinese economy.” According to Reade, for the past two years the Chinese economy has not been growing as fast as it normally does, which has further subdued demand in the Chinese property market. “The weaker economic growth has affected sentiment from all types of buyers in the country, with jewellery demand being the most affected.” Interestingly, given that investors are short on investment choices, appetite for gold has increased substantially in China. “Another positive change that arose in gold demand last year was a 25% increase in global investment demand, which was driven largely by improved ETF flows. ETF investors sold gold in 2021, 2022 and 2023 and for the first half of 2024, but changed stance to becoming purchasers of the precious metal in the second half of the year.” Looking ahead, Reade expects high gold prices to continue to weigh on jewellery demand, while investment demand is

Higher gold prices negatively impacted jewellery demand last year.

commence production in the next few years. Investors are seeking more stable jurisdictions to invest in and, with Canada emerging as the new ‘hotspot’ gold destination, investors are flocking to capitalise on new project developments in the country. Further to this, Australia is also entrenching its place as a key gold mining jurisdiction, says Reade. Gold demand trends in 2024 Discussing gold demand trends

expected to continue to soar. “The ETF buying that we saw in the second half of 2024 is also expected to continue.” Although gold is anticipated to reach new highs in 2025,

for 2024, Reade highlights a strong end to 2024 with robust demand for gold from Central Banks. “Earlier in 2024,

Although gold is anticipated to reach new highs in 2025, Reade cautions: “Industry should not expect the same gains for gold in 2025 as achieved in 2024.

we expected Central Bank demand to close in at perhaps 800 tons. However, owing to a strong showing from Central Banks, gold breached the 1 000-ton mark for three years in a row - a really positive factor in the gold market. However, higher gold

Reade cautions: “Industry should not expect the same gains for gold in 2025 as achieved in 2024. Gold’s annual

return reached 26% last year - this unusually high return on gold is unlikely to be repeated in 2025. We are modestly positive about gold’s performance this year, but it seems unlikely that we will achieve returns in 2025 to match 2024,” concludes Reade. n

prices negatively impacted jewellery demand last year, specifically, a weakness in demand from Chinese consumers, which seems to be more than just about price. In fact, average global jewellery demand was down 11% in 2024 with Chinese

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8  MODERN MINING  www.modernminingmagazine.co.za | APRIL 2025