Modern Mining April 2025

The market expects gold to trade up to $3 000 an ounce at some point this year.

Supply fundamentals influencing the gold market in 2025 Although mine production hit an all-time high in 2024 – this on the back of sky-rocketing gold prices and robust demand, industry experts expect to encounter a supply shortfall in 2025. “Given the interruptions to production in countries such as Mali, we anticipate gold production from Africa to be lower in 2025 compared to last year.” Reade cites the political turmoil impacting production in the Sahel region as the biggest new factor influencing the gold market. “Gold production interruptions are expected to continue until negotiations can be concluded between governments and mining companies in the Sahel region. It is difficult to predict by how much production will be affected, but it is also difficult to believe there will be no impacts on production.” Aside from policy changes to the mining decree from the Malian government, frictions in Burkina Faso and instability in the Democratic Republic of Congo continue to impact gold production. Mali is the second largest gold producer, after Ghana, with South Africa in third place and Burkina Faso in 4 th position. The DRC is also a significant gold producer, producing 42 t in 2024. Canada - a new gold producing region? According to Reade, with Canada regarded as a safe investment jurisdiction and a country that is highly prospective for gold discoveries, the world’s second-largest country by total area is fast building its gold inventory and making its mark in the gold mining industry. Last year alone, several new gold mines and expansion initiatives came onstream in Canada with more new mines scheduled to

different from any seen before, the WGC’s ability to make forecasts and predictions “is lower than I can remember”. These events continue to influence the price of gold, with Reade noting that from the beginning of 2025 up to the first week in February, gold experienced five all-time highs, “boosting the price that African gold mining companies are getting for their sales of gold”. Interestingly, industry pundits are forecasting the gold price to breach the $3,000 an ounce mark by the end of this year. However, Reade notes that as an observer of the gold market, the precious metal is already trading close to $3,000 an ounce - being only 3 or 4% away from that level. “The market expects gold to trade up to $3 000 an ounce at some point this year; however, if we are going to sustain that price we will need to see strength from the fundamental side of the gold market. So, either more investment demand or more Central Bank demand.”

APRIL 2025 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za  MODERN MINING  7